Parliament Opening: Will Critical Issues be Thrown Aside?

Standard Media 23rd Feb. 2010.

The Tenth Parliament reconvenes today for its fourth session that is expected to be a test for the coalition government whose leadership has been squabbling right from the top.

Rifts between the coalition partners are expected to spill into the House where President Kibaki’s party, PNU, which feels rejuvenated by the internal wrangling in ODM, wants to take the battle to its coalition partner.

ODM has a majority of members but will this afternoon be entering the House facing a serious unity crisis.

Sour relations that have been simmering behind the scenes between Prime minister Raila Odinga and his deputy William Ruto burst into the open when the PM said he had suspended the Agriculture minister over the maize scandal. President Kibaki overruled the suspension and also termed the PM’s action illegal.

Allies of Mr Ruto have given indication that they may align themselves with PNU inside the House, portending a weaker hand for ODM.

The numerical strength of each side is also expected to play a crucial role in the fate of the coalition Government since the voting patterns in Parliament could determine whether the it remains intact until 2012.

The shifting of allegiances of MPs aligned to both parties in recent times have given rise to fears that it might end up undermining the power-sharing deal and ultimately render the coalition Government ineffective.

A decision by a section of ODM MP to back a PNU motion that seeks to have the President appoint Leader of Government Business could be a litmus test for the coalition.

House Speaker Kenneth Marende has been acting Leader of Governemtn Business after a dispute arose over who, between the PM and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, should assume the position.

The PM had said he had appointed himself to the position, clashing with PNU since Kibaki had written to Parliament saying the Vice-President would play the role.

ODM MPs are 111 against PNU’s 108. Both parties lost an MP through the nullification of election of Transport Minister Chirau Mwakwere (PNU) and South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara (ODM).

The only officially recognised opposition MP Cyrus Jirongo (Kaddu-Asili) usually aligns himself with PNU during voting sessions.

However, these party numbers only hold true on paper.

Alignments have taken place in recent times, with many MPs switching allegiances without defecting.

In the expected tussle over who should lead Government business, ODM could fair poorly if measures are not taken to stem the rebellion by Ruto and his allies.

Ceased to exist

Out of the 28 MPs from Ruto’s backyard, at least 20 are believed to be his close allies. The most vocal of them, Cherangany MP Joshua Kuttuny, has vowed to back PNU Motions.

Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara warns that if the new alliances would last, then the coalition Government "would have effectively ceased to exist and it would be important to go for fresh elections".

But ODM Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo is optimistic the party would ride out the storm safely. He added: "Don’t be fooled, ODM still has the numbers to beat them hands down."

Mr Midiwo’s confidence is borne out of PNU’s own internal squabbles.

A section of the party’s MPs are said to be leaning towards Raila’s side, including some Narc-Kenya MPs.

"At the end of the day, we shall command an overwhelming majority against them. But I hope an opportunity presents itself for us to demonstrate our superiority," Midiwo said.

He says part of ODM’s confidence stems from the fact they have the numbers within the Standing Orders Committee, which is charged with making periodic reviews of Standing Orders, to quash the motion on chairman of House Business Committee.

PNU Chief Whip George Thuo played down the impact of the shifting alliances on the Government as well as his party’s motion. "We shall have to vote on the issue (motion) soon, but it is too early to talk of numbers now," he said.

But Kuttuny is confident the motion would sail through, saying they would even marshal a two-third majority if needed. On the impact of it on his party and the coalition, he said: "Raila brought it upon himself."

Imanyara says he would oppose the motion because it is targeted at individuals. "The point of it is to embarrass Raila. And laws made to spite others are always bad laws," he said.

However Prof Macharia Munene, a lecturer of Political Science at the United States International University reckons that the shifts are about the political survival of individuals and would not breed in to a major crisis.

"These are simply politicians trying to salvage political careers. I don’t think they even have the support of their constituents. I don’t see these alliances lasting for long," he said.

In absence of official opposition, the squabbles have provided a self-check mechanism that has been effective until now.

Kacc directors

But if the pro-Ruto MPs permanently switch their allegiances, then the power balance will shift in PNU’s favour.

However, it is important to note that MPs in the Tenth Parliament have not always voted on party lines at certain times and, therefore, it cannot be said with certainty what direction they would vote.

The House is today expected to discuss plans to approve officials for the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC). The names of Dr Patrick Lumumba as KACC director and his two assistants Pravin Bowry and Jane Onsongo will be tabled for approval this afternoon.